WordPress

Which Open-Source CMS Has the Most Active Development Community? [Part Two]

In Part One we estimated the number of websites that use Drupal as of July 2010. You can read that.

Per capita (so to speak), which of the big three open-source content management systems (Drupal, Joomla, and WordPress) has the most vigorous development community? This isn’t about the biggest community, but the busiest. For reference, here’s the estimated number of sites powered by each of the big three as of July 2010:

I’m going to keep this post shorter than the previous one, mainly because there’s much less estimating to philosophize about this time. Like our first post, there’s no direct way to quantify something like this, so we’ll have to fly at it from various angles.

Extensions

One way to measure developer industry: the number of extensions each community currently offers. At the moment, here’s how many community-developed CMS extensions are listed by each community’s official repository:

Drupal: 6,190
Joomla: 5,274
WordPress: 10,278

WordPress has almost double the extensions of either Drupal or Joomla. But we’re not evaluating numbers without context; we’re interested in how many extensions each generates relative to its community size.

According to this, we can reasonably conclude the average Drupal developer is somewhat more likely to work on an extension than the average Joomla or WordPress developer. For the value of such an observation, I turn to you, comment section.

Of course, this isn’t a comment on the quality of these extensions. All three have pearls of really stunning work, and all three have duds and abandoned projects. It would take a million monkeys on a million keyboards a million years to learn how to operate a single module, let alone rank 21,742 extensions by quality. It would take a million people much less time, but there’s only one person writing this post, so any rankings based on quality won’t be considered here. Only sheer volume.

Forums

Did I take the time to add up the posts found at the official community forums of Drupal, Joomla, and WordPress? Afraid so. Totals:

Drupal: 836,000+
Joomla: 2,042,000+
WordPress: 470,000+

Totals in the context of community size:

So Drupal and Joomla people like to talk to other Drupal and Joomla people all day long, while WordPress people just blog it out. One could point out that Drupal and Joomla are much more complicated and powerful than WordPress, so of course more message board questions, strategies, theories, taboos, memes, and myths will arise from their respective camps.

Conference Attendance

All three communities have meetups around the world, whether they’re called WordCamps, Drupalcamps, Joomla! Days, or what have you. All three communities have these things several times a year in cities around the world. Attendance at these deals tends to range in the 100-300 ballpark. We’ll call attendance even for all three. Seriously, Google your mind out if you want, but it’s pretty close across the board.

However, Drupal also holds DrupalCon twice a year (once in North America, once elsewhere). WordPress and Joomla don’t have anything that compares — the most recent DrupalCon, an April weekender in San Francisco, was the tenth such event (we attended #8) and featured around 3,000 attendees, while the inaugural Joomla! World Conference has been postponed. In fact, DrupalCon has been such a success that WordPress is considering following in Drupal’s footsteps:

I’m not going to add up the claimed attendance of the dozens of Temples of Joom! and WordFests and Drupaloozas that have popped up all over the world, but DrupalCon makes it pretty clear Drupal developers are the most likely to gather with each other in large masses to be nerds all day. Until WordStock takes off, at least. And considering Drupal is the smallest community as far as user base goes, that’s pretty impressive.

In Conclusion

I feel we’ve made a non-insane case that Drupal’s development community is the busiest of the big three’s. While all three are amazing products and capable of doing just about anything, we’ve chosen to hitch 70% of our wagon to Drupal for a reason. (30% of our wagon remains hitched to WordPress, so here’s hoping they don’t go and call their conference WehatedrupalconCon.)

BONUS SECTIONDESIGNERS

So that’s developers. What about designers? This one’s a blowout.

I Googled X themes (X being WordPress, Joomla, or Drupal) and noted the number of results for each — 775,000 for Drupal, 4 million for Joomla, and almost 54 million for WordPress. Divide those by the number of sites for each, and we have:

Even though wordpress themes is a popular spam thing, surely inflating those Google results, it’s still apparent that WordPress is the most designer-y CMS. Not that we didn’t know this, but here’s a little visualization of the nerdiest possible way to perceive the disparity.

How Many Websites Use Drupal? Let's Estimate A Number [Part One]

We work with WordPress and Drupal. According to wordpress.com, there are 25.2 million WordPress sites as of July 2010. How many Drupal sites are there?

Very short answer:

Nobody knows for sure. But we think at least 7.19 million websites use Drupal as of July 2010, including hundreds of the world's most prestigious sites. Whatever the exact number is, it's growing exponentially.

Very long answer:

Since there are no exact numbers and no perfect ways to find exact numbers (in fact, the community lost count pretty much right away), we have to attack this from a few angles.

Angle 1: Compare Drupal's Market Share To WordPress' Market Share

Here's how the software used by the 10,000 most popular websites breaks down, according to Backend Battles, which is a website technology monitor and not a dance contest:

141 of the 10,000 most popular websites run on WordPress. 39 are based on Drupal (making them the web's two most popular content management systems). So Drupal has 27.6% of WordPress' presence on the Backend Battles list.

BuiltWith Technology Trends is similar to Backend Battles, but uses a larger sample size of 100,000 sites. According to BuiltWith as of July 2010, WordPress is used by 3.09% of websites, and Drupal is used by 1.67%. BuiltWith suggests Drupal has 54% of WordPress' user base. (Grain of salt: BuiltWith has been known to think everything's Drupal, like it's a kid in Sunday school answering every question by saying, "Um, the Bible?", but they claim they've fixed that by now.)

If we extrapolated Backend Battles' 27.6% and BuiltWith's 54% to the entire web, we could suggest that there are either 7 million or 13.6 million Drupal sites on the entire web. An average of the two would be 10.3 million. But that's likely too high. More on that in a second.

We'd arrive at these numbers by applying the Backend Battles and BuiltWith percentages (27.6% and 54%) to the number of total WordPress sites among the entire web (25.2 million as of July 2010), not just among the most popular 10,000. Because if Drupal has X% as many sites as WordPress among a sample size of 10,000 sites, it's reasonable to think the percentage would stay similar even among a set of all sites.

10.3 million: too high or too low?

On the one hand, the total number of WordPress sites includes both self-hosted sites that use WordPress software and blogs hosted on wordpress.com. The sites measured by Backend Battles and BuiltWith are the web's most heavily trafficked sites -- almost all of them are self-hosted. Most blogs hosted on wordpress.com are going to be less popular than the web's 10,000 or even 100,000 most popular sites. The density of total WordPress sites is only going to swell the deeper we go past the most popular sites. Anyone can start a wordpress.com blog in seconds, and then never touch it again. Surely that's boosted WordPress' numbers quite a bit.

Drupal, however, doesn't have any widely adopted instant-website solution. If you want a Drupal website, you've got to really want a Drupal website -- committing to downloading, installing, and setting up Drupal is a bigger barrier to entry than WordPress usage faces. (Drupal's trying out Gardens as a quick-and-easy, WordPressy, hosted-for-you deal, but it's not likely to catch on because the freaking URL is drupalgardens.com.

Imagine telling someone in a loud bar, "You should check out my blog. It's at partyface.drupalgardens.com."
Their reaction would be: "Partyface what gardens dot com?"
You: "D-R-U-P-A-L. I think it means rain in Norweigan; it's got modules."
Them: "Partyface dot D-R-U-P-A-L dot gardens dot com?"
You: "Close, but no. Let's walk through this one more time."

Digressing.)

On the other hand, as this Joomla chart suggests, open-source CMS usage tends to be more prevalent once you venture past the top 100,000 sites, though perhaps none more so than wordpress.com-hosted blogs.

Brain hurts. Here's what's happening: cutting that Drupal average by 20%, a totally arbitrary number, to account for the wordpress.com thing.

Angle 1 result: 8.24 million Drupal sites.

Another web software monitoring site we considered, W3Techs, was way out there: Drupal has only 11% of WordPress' presence. On its face, that's not totally unreasonable -- 11% of WordPress' 25.2 million sites would suggest there are about 3 million Drupal sites, which is much lower than the others but not outrageous. However, they're only counting domains, not subdomains, meaning their numbers would only give WordPress credit for its 13.8 self-hosted sites, not its 11.4 wordpress.com-hosted sites. And 11% of 13.8 million is only a million and a half A MILLION AND HALF. As we'll get to in Angle 3, Drupal was downloaded more times than that during the third-biggest year of its shelf life, let alone its other eight and a half years A MILLION AND A HALF.

Angle 2: Look At What People Are Searching For

According to Google Trends as of July 2010, WordPress gets searched 3.2 times more often than Drupal does. Even though WordPress appears to be soaring while Drupal plateaus (we’d prefer the term consistent, even though Drupal clearly was Googled more in 2009 than it was in 2008), the difference is between 2.1 x and 3.5 x for every calendar year so far. Therefore, WordPress has had about 3.2 times the popular interest Drupal has had. Popular interest is relevant here because more searches are going to mean more downloads/signups YES I KNOW not directly, but I can’t imagine how there wouldn’t be some kind of correlation there. (Then again, Joomla was searched more often than WordPress was for three straight years, and there aren’t as many Joomla sites as there are WordPress sites; Joomla has been downloaded 14 million times since 2007 according to joomla.org as of May 2010 in a long string of prepositional phrases without a comma. A fine number if it’s accurate, but not enough to approach 25.2 million. Sometimes all you can do is throw your hands in the air and proceed as planned. Watch me do that in the very next paragraph.)

Assuming X number of searches translates to Y number of new sites, we can again use the 25.2 million total WordPress sites as a base point. Dividing 25.2 million by 3.2 gives us 7.9 million, remarkably close to our 8.24 million estimate from Angle 1. Now let’s dock it by OH GOSH SAY 20%, because of the previously noted wordpress.com-hosted thing.

Angle 2 result: 6.32 million Drupal sites.

Angle 3: Expand On What We Know About Drupal Download Stats

Our first two angles depend pretty much entirely on the data that the WordPress organization has chosen to release to the public. They’re not known exaggerators, but our whole house of cards would be zoning violation’d if their numbers were off. So let’s try and do one independent of WordPress.

From 2006 to 2008, Drupal founder Dries Buytaert posted annual download stats, but hasn’t done so since. That’s fine. As with Joomla and WordPress above, we’ll assume they’re accurate.

Drupal downloads per year:

That’s almost 2.5 million downloads right there. More than two years have passed since the most recent update. If downloads continued at 2008’s pace, that would equal 5.7 million downloads, plus whatever happened between 2001 and 2005 — let’s say ~300,000 total for Drupal’s first four years. That might seem conservative, but it still adds up to 6 million. Of course, there’s reason to believe (based on our sources for Angles 1 and 2, plus other factors*) that demand for Drupal has risen in the past two years, so 6 million is too low.

* BuiltWith finds Drupal to be among the web’s 50 fastest-growing technologies between April and July 2010. DrupalCon attendance continues to double. 20% of Drupal’s total module projects were begun in the past eleven months (4,600 in August 2009 according to Wikipedia, 6,190 on drupal.org as of July 2010). The many high-profile organizations that continue to convert to Drupal (in the past few weeks: the U.S. Department of Commerce, South Africa’s World Cup site, and Christina Aguilera, among others). And so forth.

Sure, a Drupal download doesn’t equal a new Drupal site. There are many reasons why a download wouldn’t end up becoming a full-fledged site — people could download just to try out Drupal or test a module, for example. But let’s say this is balanced by: (A) one download could spawn 1,000 sites if a developer was so inclined — none of which are counted here, (B) there are plenty of other places besides drupal.com from which to download Drupal (if we felt like it, we could host it for download right here), (C) there are dozens of custom Drupal distributions like Acquia, iSite Essentials, Open Publish, and Pressflow that aren’t counted (D) alpha, beta, and release candidate downloads — most of which could yield a fully functioning site — aren’t counted, and so on.

Bumping that 6 million up by 1 million to account for Drupal’s increase in popularity since 2008 is very reasonable. Downloads almost tripled between 2007 and 2008, and we’re certainly estimating a much less aggressive rate of increase than that. Yep, that puts us right within range of our previous two estimates, which might seem like we’re forcing the numbers to fit. But, using 6 million as our base number, how many do you suggest we add to account for Drupal’s mini-surge of 2009 and, to a lesser extent, 2010?

Angle 3 result: At least 7 million Drupal sites.

Crappy, Discarded Angle: Search For How Many Sites Still Have The “Powered By Drupal” Badge

Every stock Drupal install includes a little footer badge with the Drupal logo and some alt text that reads, “Powered by Drupal, an open source content management system.” Most people take it down; some people leave it be. You’d think searching for this would be useful — no, not really. Depending on the search engine (and, seemingly, the time of day, ozone levels over Nepal, and LeBron James’ number of Twitter followers) it returns anywhere from 60 million results to 40,000. There are nowhere near 60 million Drupal sites that haven’t removed their showroom stickers yet, and there are a whole lot more than 40,000.

Even using Yahoo! Site Explorer and filtering to only include sites that link back to drupal.org, as the badge does, isn’t helpful. I tried several different variations of the same kind of search, all of which wound up under 100,000.

This angle is like 89 degrees — it ain’t right. (And yes, this means there weren’t 40 million freaking Joomla sites two years after it was created.)

Angle 4: Fly Everything Up The Flagpole And See Who Salutes

Averaging the results from all three previous reasonable angles — because why not? — gives us 7.19 million. And until somebody comes up with a better idea, that’s our answer. Please come up with a better idea.

We estimate there are about 7.19 million Drupal sites, and we’re not as un-confident about that as you might think we should be. Your turn?

(7.19 million, and we just want to build you one.)

Joomla!-to-WordPress Conversion for Commonwealth Church Finance: Complete

We’re pleased to announce our successful redevelopment of the web home of Commonwealth Church Finance, a 30-year-old organization that has helped “over 600 churches and non-profit organizations obtain over half a billion dollars to finance construction.” Converting the site from Joomla! to WordPress proved to be a great move for CCF.

The site had used Joomla! 1.0 for some time, and needed an upgrade. But upgrading to Joomla! 1.5 is more of a migration than an upgrade — it’s simply not a developer-friendly process. As long as we had to migrate anyway, why not switch from Joomla! to WordPress, which is easier to use and has an open-source community that dwarfs Joomla!’s? Plus, upgrading the current site to future versions of WordPress will be a snap, especially compared to that daunting Jooma! 1.0-1.5 conversion. We’re still shuddering.

Luckily, CCF agreed to our conclusion. We retained the site’s look and feel, but custom-designed a more appealing header. Converting several static elements into dynamic elements (images into galleries, static pages into blog posts) makes the site easier to update and more flexible.

The site now uses Javascript APIs instead of its former piles of stray scripts scattered everywhere. Cleaning up code assures a faster and more web-standardized site.

We also enabled a Lightbox-esque solution for the site’s hosted video, using JW Player:

Changing this Joomla! site into a WordPress site was certainly worth it, as CCF now has greater control over its site and access to a much, much richer support community.

The Migratory Patterns of the Vuvuzela [Three Best Things 6/14/10 - 6/20/10]

THING: Map: Where Americans Are Moving from Forbes. Cool clicky infowidget (filled with stats and numbertainment) that shows migration patterns for each county in the United States. Our county, Cherokee in Georgia, is pulling tons of people from Florida, Los Angeles, and New York City, while losing residents to places like east Texas, the other L.A.(Lower Alabama), and Chicago. Sadly but accurately, Detroit looks like it’s bleeding dry, with its only new residents coming from very poor areas of east Virginia. Our favorite finding? Nobody ever enters or leaves Iowa; they just shuffle around within its well-gridded counties. Click your county! Why not!

THING: If sports got reported like science… from Items of Interest. For some reason, it’s ok to nerd out when talking sports in polite company, but science discussions have to stay around a fourth-grade level. Have you noticed this?

THING:WordPress 3 is out. We’ve only started to try out its new features, including custom post types (which brings it one step closer to Drupal’s versatility). Of course, learning the old stock WordPress theme’s days are numbered is pretty exciting too:

World Cup Vuvuzela Bonus

You know, if there was a Forbes migration map for sports noisemakers, the vuvuzela would already be cutting loud, flavorful lines into the U.S. They’ve already emerged at a Florida Marlins baseball game and the College World Series in freaking Nebraska, and every Southern college football fanbase is talking big about going into total vuvuzela-arms-race mode. This might all blow over by next week, or America might be in for it. Either way:

Via SB Nation and @Jose3030

TheInformedChoice.com: Nipped, Tucked, & Ready for Its Mobile Closeup

Atlanta cosmetic surgery consultant Carol Martin had three problems:

  1. Her site’s tricky-to-use Flash navigation was as hard for search engines to read as it was for humans… and it was even worse for those on mobile devices like iPhones and iPads, obviously.
  2. She was unable to update her own site’s content without paying a webmaster to do it for her.
  3. Her Flash-intensive e-commerce section was arranged so that each product was piled into the same page, which was all of course damn near invisible to Google and mobile devices. Since she’d switched from static pages to a Flash setup, her sales had fallen.

Our solutions:

  1. Rebuild the menu navigation using jQuery to achieve better aesthetics, better functionality (it now feels like you’re tactilely moving the slider instead of just aiming and praying), better usability, and better search engine visibility. Plus it works on iPads, BlackBerrys, and other mobiles now, making the entire site accessible to users on the go.
  2. Customize WordPress for her, empowering her to update any of her own content from any computer at any time without any middle man whatsoever. We even rebuilt her old design as a custom WordPress theme.
  3. Convert Flash-based store into static pages, making each individual page capable of pulling in traffic from search engines and improving usability.

Simple as that:

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